INTEREST RATE CUT OR INTEREST RATE HIKE?

The December 9 decision

Will there be a Bank of Canada interest rate cut on December 9? Traders' prices point to less than a 1 in 20 chance of one.

An interest rate cut, to 2.25%less than 5%
less than 1 in 20
No change, at 2.50%45%
a little under half
An interest rate hike, to 2.75%55%
a little over half

Prices from the close on Thursday, October 29. I update this every trading day.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PAYMENT

Choose the kind of mortgage you have. I show what each outcome on December 9 would do to your payment.

Your mortgage

Most variable mortgages at RBC, TD, BMO and CIBC keep the same payment when the rate moves.

Your payment stays at $2,544 a month. It does not change, whatever the Bank does.

Interest in each payment

No changeTraders' prices: a little under half$1,521 a month
An interest rate hikeTraders' prices: a little over half$1,625 a month$104 more
An interest rate cutTraders' prices: less than 1 in 20$1,417 a month$104 less

When interest takes more of each payment, less of it pays down what you owe.

If your rate reached about 6.1%, all of your payment would go to interest.

Each interest rate hike or interest rate cut here is a quarter point.

The January 27 decision

Too early to read. The contracts I use do not reach far enough ahead to show this decision on its own yet.

Every decision, and how close these have been

The Bank's rate is 2.50%. It has been there since October 29, 2026.

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