The Bank of Canada next sets its rate on Wednesday, December 9, 2026. Traders' prices point to a little over an even chance of an interest rate hike.
The Bank's rate is 2.50%. It has been there since October 29, 2026.
Prices from the close on Thursday, October 29. I update this every trading day.
My Toronto housing market forecast for this monthRATE ODDS ALERTS
I will let you know when the odds for the next decision move by 10 points or more. On decision day, I send the Bank's decision the minute it is out. It comes as a push to your phone, or by email.
Will the Bank of Canada announce an interest rate cut?
My read of the Bank's last decision, for GTA homes
WHY FIXED RATES MAY NOT MOVE
Fixed rates follow the interest rate on Canada's 5-year government bonds.
Lenders already build the interest rate hikes that traders expect into today's fixed rates. So an expected interest rate hike may not change fixed rates at all.
Fixed rates move when the news is a surprise.
HOW THIS WORKS
Banks and investors trade contracts that pay out based on Canada's overnight interest rate. The price of each contract shows the rate they expect.
I compare that expected rate with today's rate. The difference shows how likely a change is.
The overnight rate is CORRA, the rate banks pay to borrow from each other overnight. The contracts are the One-Month and Three-Month CORRA Futures on the Montreal Exchange.
SOURCES
Contract prices from the Montreal Exchange. The Bank's rate and the overnight rate from the Bank of Canada. The odds are my own calculation from those prices.
These are what traders' prices point to. They are not a forecast and not advice.