Red bands are months the Bank was raising. Blue bands are months it was cutting. Drag across the chart to read any month.
Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate: Statistics Canada daily series v39079 to January 2010, the Bank's Valet series V39079 from April 2009, read 2026-10-31. TRREB Market Watch, board total, first prints: the Grand Total row of each edition from January 2005 to June 2011 (fieldwork PDF cache), then data/trreb-market-watch/gta_market_watch_full.json to September 2026. The dotted red line is the median's pace since the first cut in June 2024, carried forward.
Each cycle is priced from its first move until the Bank turned the other way.
Hikes 2022 to 23 · 10 hikes
−15%
Mar 2022 $1,165,000
Jun 2024 $990,000
Rate 0.25% to 5%
Until the Bank turned.
Cuts 2024 to 25 · 9 cuts
−13%
Jun 2024 $990,000
Sep 2026 $860,000
Rate 5% to 2.25%
Until the Bank turned.
Hikes 2026 · 1 hike
New
Rate 2.25% to 2.5%
No month on record after this move yet.
For 17 years, GTA prices went up in every cycle. That includes three rounds of interest rate hikes. The pattern starts in 2022.
THE QUESTION THAT MATTERS
Will prices keep falling, or turn?
Median since the first cut
−0.52%
A month, on average, Jun 2024 to Sep 2026. Last six months: −0.19% a month. Against a year ago: −5.4%.
For sale in Sep 2026
26,131
Behind 2025, 2008 and 2006
The fourth most for a September since 2005.
Unsold and gone
60,674
83,509 across the board
Counted October 31
Up 978 since October 24
Listed since April 2024 in the five GTA regions. They came off the market unsold and have not come back.
AFTER THE FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT OF EACH CYCLE
December 2007 · 4.50% to 0.25%
10 cuts, median $320,950 that month
−5%
+9%
January 2015 · 1.00% to 0.50%
2 cuts, median $465,000 that month
+14%
+36%
March 2020 · 1.75% to 0.25%
3 cuts, median $785,000 that month
+20%
+48%
June 2024 · 5.00% to 2.25%
9 cuts, median $990,000 that month
−4%
−10%
The GTA median a year and two years after the Bank's first cut, against the month of that cut.
Twice the median was higher a year after the first cut. Twice it was lower. By the second year, 2007 was back above its start. 2024 is not back yet. This time 26,131 homes were for sale. That is more than every September since 2005 but three. And 61,000 more had come off the market unsold. That is the ground a quarter point lands on.
TRREB Market Watch, board total, first prints: the Grand Total row of each edition from January 2005 to June 2011 (fieldwork PDF cache), then data/trreb-market-watch/gta_market_watch_full.json to September 2026. Homes listed since April 2024 that came off the market unsold and have not come back: fieldwork never-sold tracker, run 41200523194, counted 2026-10-31.
RATE ODDS ALERTS
I will let you know when the odds for the next decision move by 10 points or more. On decision day, I send the Bank's decision the minute it is out. It comes as a push to your phone, or by email.
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